[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS PART OF A BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 34W-37W. POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER A LARGER AREA WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO TRACK BENEATH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE GENERATING MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS
OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 70W-74W EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER OVERALL SURFACE
FLOW OF T.D. SIXTEEN-E IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
81W-86W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 15N17W 9N25W 6N28W 9N37W 10N40W
10N54W. A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR
15N35W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 32W-35W. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM
4N20W TO 6N37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE GULF WATERS N OF 29N. A 1012 MB SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO 26N90W AND INLAND
INTO E/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS TO THE
SE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NW OF
THE FRONT...THUS CLEAR SKIES N OF 27N INCLUDING THE WRN GULF
COAST THIS EVENING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINING
GULF WATERS ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W AND
PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 23N WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE FRONT AND
PORTIONS OF THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE W ATLC DIPS S
INTO THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN FROM ANGUILLA W TO ERN CUBA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N64W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOIST AIR ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATIONS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND NRN COLOMBIA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 70W-74W ALONG
WITH AN AREA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
60W-64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW BAHAMAS IN THE FAR W ATLC. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 27N-32N W OF 78W. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN
50W-65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N49W EXTENDING SW TO 26N60W AND TO 25N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 31N51W TO 23N55W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N. A
SIMILAR AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 54W-57W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE NE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
29N37W AND EXTENDS NE TO OVER THE AZORES. AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 17N40W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 30W-38W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 14N S
OF 24N TO NEAR 35W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ERN ATLC N
OF 15N E OF 45W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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