[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 97.5W AT
08/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 60 NM S OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THIS WAS THE LAST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. MARCO HAS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AND IS POORLY
ORGANIZED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
GULF WATERS S OF 22N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N WITH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WITH CLUSTERS SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
34W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 52W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE GENERATING
HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA...THUS MASKING ANY
SATELLITE SIGNATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS BENEATH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BETWEEN AN UPPER
HIGH AND UPPER LOW THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN...THUS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N16W 7N26W 11N37W 9N50W 8N61W.
A SMALL 1011 MB LOW IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 14N32W
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 16N31W TO 14N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 200 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-13N. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-13N
BETWEEN 18W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO IS NOW INLAND OVER MEXICO...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE FAR NW GULF WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERS THE GULF
OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W EXTENDING S TO JUST OFF THE COAST
NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS TO THE SE OF THE
FRONT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NW OF THE FRONT.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINING GULF WATERS ANCHORED
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
FRONT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITHIN 140 NM THE GULF COAST
STATES NEAR 30N86W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF USHERING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF 26N E OF
85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 82W AND THE YUCATAN COAST. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC DIPS S JUST OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA E OF 80W TO ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING DENSE CLOUD CLOVER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA MAINLY S
OF 17N E OF 76W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC TO THE N CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS W OF 55W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 23N60W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING
WSW ALONG 28N65 TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PALM
BEACH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 23N63W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND
E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE NE ATLC
ANCHORED NEAR 31N35W AND EXTENDS NE TO OVER THE AZORES. AN UPPER
LOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 20N36W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N24W TO 29N37W. BETWEEN
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND THIS UPPER LOW IS
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 52W-59W. AN UPPER
RIDGE AGAIN EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG
15N S OF 23N TO 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC N
OF 20N E OF 50W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net