[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 97.1W AT
07/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 70 NM S-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 65 NM
NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
MARCO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF E/CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH A LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST LOCATED NORTH OF 15N SUPPRESSING
THE WAVE TO THE S. CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 220 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF 3N.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 41W HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED TO
ALONG 50W/51W BASED ON INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND
CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED FROM RECENT BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE
WAVE IS S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 66W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA...THEREFORE ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS JAMAICA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 8N21W 7N24W 9N34W 10N40W
9N49W 9N54W TO INLAND ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 15W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM MARCO IS LOCATED INLAND ACROSS E/CENTRAL
MEXICO...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 21N92W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AXIS
ALONG 96W EXTENDING S ACROSS ERN TEXAS TO 30N. STRONG SWLY UPPER
FLOW IS BRINGING MOIST TROPICAL AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN GULF.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PORT ARTHUR TEXAS TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER THE NRN AND WRN GULF N OF A LINE FROM ST. PETERSBURG
FLORIDA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. SIMILAR ACTIVITY DUE TO MARCO AND
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF
95W TO INLAND ACROSS ERN MEXICO. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND
TO THE WEST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 83W-85W...INCLUDING ERN NICARAGUA AND NRN COSTA
RICA. THE CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NRN VENEZUELA E OF 80W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND S OF 17N. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 68W/69W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS E OF 72W AND S OF 16N ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W
ATLC W OF 76W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS IS
SPREADING MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND NW BAHAMAS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 57W-76W. A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS W-SW TO 29N70W AND
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N58W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO 23N65W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 52W-58W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 27N39W AND EXTENDS NE TO BETWEEN THE
AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 16N40W WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES ALONG WITH A PAIR OF 1011 MB SURFACE
LOWS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 13N31W AND ANOTHER CENTERED NEAR 11N37W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO NEAR 22N34W IS GENERATING A
LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 23W-36W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
E ATLC N OF 22N E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N26W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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