[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061902 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008

CORRECTING THE DATE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN AT
06/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.2N 94.4W...OR ABOUT 115 MILES/185 KM
EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. T.D. THIRTEEN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 285 DEGREES 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...
NORTHERN OAXACA...AND TABASCO. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 15 TO 20 NM RADIUS OF 19N94W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATING NEAR
23N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9.5N IN NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM 20N PASSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS
FROM 11.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 70.5W AND 71W...AND FROM 12.5N TO
13N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W OFF THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...BETWEEN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC
CENTER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 23N60W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CENTER...AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ...
10N13W 8N20W 7N40W 7N47W 9N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 5.5N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W...AND
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS TO THE TEXAS
BIG BEND/NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 28N105W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BEYOND 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 31N70W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N70W TO 29N80W...ACROSS
FLORIDA TO 27N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 85W AND
90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 28N TO THE
EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 78W AND
80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 15N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
SPREADING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA IN ORDER TO COVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 90W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 23N60W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CENTER REACHES TO 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W
AND HISPANIOLA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 16N60W 17N70W
20N75W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...
BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CENTER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 23N60W ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER...AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT
COVERS VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TO
44N38W IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND SOUTHWARD TO 32N26W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
23N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 33N BETWEEN 51W AND 69W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N
TO 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
12N TO 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A 58W/59W SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N TO 28N IS MOVING UNDER THE
23N60W CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
31N13W TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N20W TO
A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N27W TO 15N35W TO 14N43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 26W
AND 28W NEAR THE 22N27W CYCLONIC CENTER.

$$
MT




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