[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 061446
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...INDICATING
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM.
ACCORDINGLY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE
CYCLONE REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/1500Z 19.0N  94.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 19.4N  95.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 19.6N  96.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.7N  97.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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