[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
WAVE AXIS...WHICH COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN CIMSS WAVETRACK
DERIVED LOW LEVEL COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM W OF WAVE
AXIS N OF 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN
OBSERVED SURFACE WIND FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 55W-57W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS N OF 12N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
STRUCTURE IS GENERALLY ILL-DEFINED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...
THOUGH COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IS NOTED IN OBSERVED SURFACE
WIND FIELD OVER E CARIBBEAN REGION NEAR WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 66W-68W.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE AXIS S
OF 13N.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W 11N29W 10N45W 13N61W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA ALONG 26N80W 25N84W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-86W.
A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO CLOSE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
18N91W MOVING W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 88W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W
PRODUCING MOSTLY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF
N OF 23N AND W OF 90W WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER
IS NOTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT
FURTHER NW INTO THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 73W-76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM
TRINIDAD TO N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 62W-75W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
HONDURAS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 81W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 10N-24N BETWEEN 70W-83W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...N OF 5N. EXPECT...MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 18N OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
32N72W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
27N55W 21N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 52W-56W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO DUE TO
DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N58W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N27W THAT
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E
OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 20W-23W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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