[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED AROUND
18N22W. CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY ALONG THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N
BETWEEN 21W-25W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 14W-18W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD TURNING IS NOTED S OF 18N
ALONG THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 61W-69W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 12N22W 8N35W 8N40W 12N50W
10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 25W-44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
57W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W TO A 1013 MB LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND S FLORIDA...S OF 26N AND E OF
89W. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DRIFT
NW OVER THE SE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1011 MB
LOW IS OVER N BELIZE AT 18N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
81W-90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
81W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 69W-76W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 80W PRODUCING E-SE WINDS ALOFT. A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 67W-72W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SAME AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO S
FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 26N53W WITH NO
CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N AND W OF 60W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 23N54W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N34W. A TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA




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