[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL
ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 36W-46W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 42W-46W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N31W-18N37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 21N50W TO 12N53W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THIS IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION WITH THE INVERTED-V LOW
CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH NO CLEAR INDICATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. POSITION IS
BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 11N26W 15N43W 12N56W
11N63W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-10N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA...WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE ITCZ FROM 25W-30W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM
37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS EXTENDING W TO 24N90W THEN DISSIPATING
TO 24N94W. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MARK THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR COVER ALL OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SE OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PILING
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE THE GULF REMAINS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS AT OR BELOW 60 DEG ACROSS THE N GULF
COAST STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INDUCED NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS TO
CENTRAL CUBA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE UPPER LOW THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
W/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL BELIZE.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION W OF 70W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC AND DIPS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W BRINGING
DRIER AIR TO THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A SHORT
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 69W TO 15N
COVERING THE SE CARIBBEAN. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR
ALSO COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
16N E OF 70W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC W OF 74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION THROUGH 32N76W S OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR BETWEEN VERO
BEACH AND WEST PALM BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS MARK THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LINGERING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH 32N69W ALONG 30N72W TO A WEAK 1010 MB
LOW OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N76W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA. A
NARROWING UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N66W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE
TO BEYOND 32N58W AND S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
IS GENERATING A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N77W TO BEYOND 32N69W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
TILTED AND BEGINNING TO NARROW FROM THE NE TO SW WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THAT AREA. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N AND AN EQUALLY
NARROW UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N42W TO BEYOND 32N38W. A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE
AREA FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 49W-56W CENTERED NEAR 18N53W AND
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST TO
THE E. AN ELONGATED E/W UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST OF MOROCCO COVERING THE NE ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS
NORTHWARD E OF 23W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA
ALONG 15N TO 45W DOMINATING THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CONCENTRATION OF AFRICAN DUST
FROM 8N-20N E OF 31W.

$$
WALLACE





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