[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE IN AFRICA NEAR 10N12W TO 5N30W 4N45W
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 6N11W 5N23W 3N34W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN
35W AND 40W...AND AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S.A. THIS TROUGH IS DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH
OF 26N EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N88W
23N90W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A SQUALL LINE REACHED THE FLORIDA/
GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 30.6N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W FROM ONE SIDE OF
FLORIDA TO OTHER ONE. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN GENERAL NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 11N81W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COSTA RICA SOUTH OF 11N EAST
OF 84W...AND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA
THAT IS ADJACENT TO HONDURAS FROM 10N TO 11.5N EAST OF 86.5W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG
86W/87W...AND THE ITCZ IS JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG A LINE FROM THE
WATERS BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA TO JUST WEST OF GRENADA...
SAINT VINCENT AND CURVING TOWARD 14N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N58.5W 12N60W
10N62W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DRY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W TO 25N45W TO 17N53W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 9N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 11N TO 32N. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS RIDGE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN AFRICA AND 41W/42W.
A SURFACE TROUGH...DENOTING RESIDUAL SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND FLOW
IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N39W TO 26N32W. ANOTHER CONTINUING
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N33W TO 15N43W TO 13N52W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 10N47W 16N37W 23N33W.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
31W/32W RIDGE...THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 40W.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
26W AND 35W.

$$
MT





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