[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N20W 9N40W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W...
FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 30W-37W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N85W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. 5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH 70-90 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
27N81W IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW REMAINS OVER PANAMA NEAR 10N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER LAKE MARACAIBO
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. FRESH TRADEWINDS
ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION WITH AXIS ALONG
60W. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM NEAR 32N62W TO 27N64W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1001 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N46W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS W TO A TRIPLE
POINT AT 32N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
30N36W 24N40W 18N50W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT TO 32N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE COLD AND OCCLUDED FRONTS FROM
26N-35N BETWEEN 31W-36W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT
ALONG 26N32W 15N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN
24W-35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND W OF 65W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
23N-35N BETWEEN 30W-50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TO DRIFT E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N AND W OF THE
LOW CENTER.

$$
FORMOSA







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