[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 7N27W 9N47W 7N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM KEY LARGO
FLORIDA TO THE NW TIP OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO NEAR 23N88W WHERE
IT TURNS STATIONARY AND EXTENDS NW TO NEAR 26N96W. SUPPORTING
THIS FRONT IS A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH THAT RESIDES ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD OF THE U.S. EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FAR W
ATLC...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WRN CUBA. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E
OF TALLAHASSEE NEAR 30N84W. MAINLY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A 1021 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N101W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A
1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N83W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS
SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S
OF 15N AND W OF 70W ACROSS THE SW AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AS TROUGHING ENTERS THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
ERN VENEZUELA NWD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH WEAKER RIDGING
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES USHERED IN ON E-NE FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N68W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PROVIDENCE CHANNEL TO
NEAR KEY LARGO FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT N OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N47W. THIS UPPER
LOW AND TROUGH SUPPORT A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR
29N48W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW THROUGH 32N45W
TO 30N40W. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N38W TO
20N42W TO 13N51W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 17N-29N E OF THE FRONT TO 30W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM 30N40W TO 30N33W TO 28N28W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM 31N-34N
BETWEEN 31W-42W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT LOCATED EAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS AIDING IN THE ENHANCEMENT
OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AZORES
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS S TO OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
HUFFMAN





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