[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF 18N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY
THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 9N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 70W-75W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N21W 9N29W 6N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 24W-34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W WITH
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INLAND OVER ERN MEXICO. RESIDUAL BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF W OF 93W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF E OF 93W WHILE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ACROSS THE WRN GULF W OF 93W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 93W-97W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...50-70 KT ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINING S OF A LINE FROM 27N81W TO 20N97W
MAINLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SE GULF. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF MON AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. THE
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER ERN CUBA
ALONG 21N76W TO 21N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF
THE FRONT. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-16N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N AND E OF 70W USHERED IN ON 15-20
KT NORTHEAST WINDS. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 25-30
KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SURFACE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
BASIN IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN PLACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N54W AND EXTENDING
TO NEAR 25N60W ACROSS THE CAICOS ISLANDS AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N
AND FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 65W-78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO 77W. A 1014 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N60W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD
AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N31W SW TO 19N40W WITH A 1010 MB
LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ANOTHER
1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N55W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N47W THROUGH THE LOW
CENTER TO SAINT LUCIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...OVERALL WEAK
TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN WITH ONE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 65W SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT AND
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 33W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 30N35W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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