[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE
COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IN CLOUD COVERAGE...WHERE
WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY...A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COINCIDES WITH THIS WAVE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N22W 9N28W 8N40W 6N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 13W-19W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 24W-36W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDUAL
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF N OF
22N. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF.
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF
93W. ALSO WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...50-70 KT ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE SE
GULF...AND FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. EXPECT...RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 87W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END
OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER CUBA ALONG 21N76W
21N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1007
MB LOW IS N OF PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 76W-83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA N OF 15N AND E OF 75W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS
PRODUCING 25-30 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM
TRINIDAD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...THE FRONT
OVER CUBA TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N55W
26N60W 22N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR
21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT
TO 80W. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N59W.
A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM
24N-26N BETWEEN 27W-30W. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 50W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N39W. A TROUGH IS N OF
20N AND E OF 50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N AND E
OF 50W.

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FORMOSA





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