[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 222352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W S OF 18N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 67W-72W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 7N18W 7N44W 4N51W. A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-12N BETWEEN 14W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN TIP OF
CUBA TO 23N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN SW INTO THE WRN BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE FAR WRN GULF FROM 22N96W TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 95W-99W.
EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE BY LATE SAT. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
NOTED N OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS ANCHORED ON A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...70-90 KT ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR NOTED E OF 94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. A 1009 MB
LOW IS ACROSS WRN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
76W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND ERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ERN CUBA AND TURNS
STATIONARY ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE S/CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED SE OF THIS FRONT
USHERED IN ON 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 66W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM NRN GUYANA ACROSS NRN
VENEZUELA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTED S OF 16N WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN
PLACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1036 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W AND
EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W AND TRAILS SW
THROUGH THE CROOKED ISLAND PASSAGE TO WRN CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO
80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR
27N58W TO 22N60W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE TROUGH FROM
23N-32N BETWEEN 51W-57W. FARTHER EAST...A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLC NEAR 22N34W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO
17N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 27W-34W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 15N50W TO 16N58W. ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS N OF
20N AND W OF 52W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLC
NEAR 30N32W AND EXTENDS TROUGHING N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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