[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W S OF 17N MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
ADDITIONALLY... THERE IS MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE
CIMSS PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 66W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 7N45W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N92W AND CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONTS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN
95W-100W. 15-2O KT E WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SE WINDS
ARE S OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF THE FRONTS. STRONG SURFACE
WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...70-90 KT ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONTS IN THE
GULF TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT RETURN
FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W...S
TEXAS...AND NE MEXICO...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1009 MB
LOW IS N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
76W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA N OF 15N AND E OF 75W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS
PRODUCING 25-30 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM
TRINIDAD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 16N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER CUBA TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1038 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N682W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO W CUBA ALONG 32N62W
26N70W 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO
80W. A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N58W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N62W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-58W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N33W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS
LOW TO 19N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
25W-33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF
40W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
30N28W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N AND E OF 40W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE TROPICS S OF 20N AND E OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA





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