[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 13N55W TO 6N57W AND INLAND ACROSS
ERN GUYANA TO 2N58W. IT IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ACCORDING TO THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS OF NOAA BUOYS 41101 AND 41040...THE POSITION
OF THE WAVE IS NOTED IN THE SHIFT OF WIND DIRECTION. TRENDS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW
DETACHED FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH...WHICH IS ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N51W TO 18N56W. NO ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 6N30W 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH THROUGH
NAPLES FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 25N90W TO 25N95W WHERE
IS TURNS BRIEFLY WARM FRONTAL AND INTO A 1023 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR
22N96W IN THE WRN GULF AND INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TUXPAN. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
NRN GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 86W-100W AND ACROSS ERN MEXICO AND
THE FAR WRN GULF FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 95W-101W. 20-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE W AT 80-100 KT WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED N OF WRN
PANAMA NEAR 10N81W. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS NE FROM THIS SURFACE LOW TO 16N75W TO THE MONA PASSAGE
AND INTO THE W ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
AND SURFACE FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
9N-16N BETWEEN 75W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 61W-70W. THESE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
AMPLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA
BASIN WITH AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED S OF 17N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N74W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N AND W OF
72W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N66W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO N OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS
CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N47W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH IT EXTENDING FROM 24N44W TO 30N49W.  THIS LOW
AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND BE
ABSORBED BY THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 23N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO 18N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE
AREA E OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 21W-31W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 31N22W AND EXTENDS TROUGHING N
OF 5N AND E OF 40W.

$$
HUFFMAN



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