[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WITH AXIS
MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 46W-52W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WRN
TROPICAL ATLC AND IS SUPPORTING THESE SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N12W 7N30W 9N50W 10N54W 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 16W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF THIS
EVENING KEEPING WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ERN MEXICO COAST S OF 24N AND W
OF 94W. ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN US COAST
STATES WILL ENTER THE FAR NRN GULF WITH 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND
EXTENDS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA W-SW TO NEAR 16N78W WHERE IT TURNS
STATIONARY AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL PANAMA. THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 18N
AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE
ERN CARIBBEAN A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NWD FROM THE GULF OF
PARIA ACROSS MONTSERRAT AND BARBUDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 60W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS
PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY S OF 17N AND ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC W
OF 45W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W AND EXTENDS SW TO 22N60W AND INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS COVERS THE AREA W OF THE FRONT WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA AND
THE W ATLC. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 26N65W ACROSS THE
W ATLC WATERS. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N44W AND
IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT HAS
PERSISTED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
CYCLONIC SYSTEM IS BEING STRETCHED ALONG A E-W LINE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM SRN MOROCCO ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TO NEAR 28N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 27W-38W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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