[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE POSITION WAS ADJUSTED AT 20/0600 UTC
IN ORDER TO BE ALONG 51W ROUGHLY. ITS POSITION HAS NOT CHANGED
AT THIS MAP ANALYSIS TIME...BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W...
AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ...
9N12W 6N30W 9N50W 10N53W 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN
20W AND 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS
WESTERLY FLOW IS A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
TAIL END OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
U.S.A. AND SUPPORTED THE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
EMANATES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND MOVES ACROSS MEXICO
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 28N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 19N70W TO 16N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
16N78W TO 15N80W 12N81W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 10N80W. THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA ARE CLOSE TO A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS BETWEEN 60W AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 67W AND 69W AROUND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ARE
IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUND THE STATIONARY FRONT AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
80W AND 81W...AND FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MOST RECENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO EXIT THE U.S.A. HAS
REACHED THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN TIME IN ORDER TO
SUPPORT THE ALREADY-EXISTING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 24N60W TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N56W 28N51W BEYOND
32N48W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N44W REMAINS
OF THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT HAS LASTED FOR
NEARLY THE LAST WEEK IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THAT
CYCLONIC SYSTEM IS BEING STRETCHED ALONG A NORTHWEST-TO-
SOUTHEAST LINE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM 25N28W TO
32N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 38W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS BEYOND 32N29W.
ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N80W 28N66W TO 32N61W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
23N33W BEYOND 32N28W.

$$
MT





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