[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING SLOWLY WWD. HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...
MOISTURE PRODUCTS...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICT THE WAVE WELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 65W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N20W 8N40W 6N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-27W...
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 34W-36W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR
29N95W PRODUCING 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONGER WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL E OF 87W.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF S OF 26N. SIMILAR CLOUDS HAVE MOVED S
FROM THE GULF TO CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND S
MEXICO...WHILE FLORIDA AND THE OTHER GULF COAST STATES REMAIN
CLOUD FREE WITH FAIR SKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...SURFACE
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PRODUCING CONTINUED COOL
WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA ALONG 21N76W 13N84W. N TO NE WINDS
20-30 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE  CUBA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA
...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 78W-84W.
ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER TRINIDAD
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 60W-63W. FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN
70W-77W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE SAME WINDS N OF
THE FRONT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE S
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR
21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W. A DEEP LAYERED
LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 32N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WELL E OF THE CENTER N OF 24N BETWEEN 28W-33W. ELSEWHERE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF
70W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-70W. THE DEEP
LOW NEAR 32N40W EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO 10N40W. A RIDGE IS E
OF 30W WITH AXIS ALONG 20W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SLOWLY E OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 30N61W TO E CUBA IN
24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORMOSA





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