[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 5N20W 5N30W 7N40W 8N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE U.S.A. EAST OF 100W. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL
AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ENTERING
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING TOWARD
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND MERGING WITH THE COMPARATIVELY MORE
DOMINANT CYCLONIC FLOW. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE U.S.A. EAST OF 100W SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N66W TO CUBA NEAR
21N77W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...APPEARING TO BE COMPARATIVELY MORE
DOMINANT. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR
16N73W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS APPARENT EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND
83W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF 70W. ISOLATED
AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE
BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THIS AREA IS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT AND SOME OF IT IS
RELATED TO THE 16N73W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE TROUGH/POSSIBLE
TROPICAL WAVE OF THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS SHOWN ITSELF AGAIN IN THE
LAST POSSIBLE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ENDING AT 16/1915 UTC.
CLEAR BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD SHOWS UP
BEAUTIFULLY FROM 7N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 60W AND 68W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W...PARTLY WITH THE ITCZ
AND PARTLY AT THE EDGES OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH/TROPICAL
WAVE. CURACAO REPORTED 0.93 INCHES OF RAIN ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 22N70W TO CUBA NEAR
21N77W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N82W...CURVING TO THE
HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N87W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 20N77W IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 23N73W 27N70W BEYOND 32N65W. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 24N38W 21N36W 18N40W AND 16N47W.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W 26N33W TO 19N40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 27W AND 43W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
19W/20W FROM 10N TO 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 22N69W TO
29N58W BEYOND 32N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE
32N31W 19N40W TROUGH FROM 16N31W TO 25N23W BEYOND 32N21W.

$$
MT




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