[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 9N40W 9N53W 9N57W 8N63W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 55W FROM 13N
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 47W-56W IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
15W-29W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE SW COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W
AND COVERS THE WRN GULF N OF 22N AND W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER NE
MEXICO AND ERN TEXAS. A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS
SRN GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA EXTENDING ALONG
29N90W TO A 1007 MB LOW OFFSHORE OF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N95W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR 22N96W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 90W-93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE ERN GULF AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
W ATLC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
E GULF. THIS FLOW REGIME IS USHERING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NE GULF N OF 25N AND E OF 88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
18N82W COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N
ACROSS CUBA AND THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE W ATLC
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 62W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 68W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AXIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 12N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR BUT ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOT
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS N
OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N71W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
18N64W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 55W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS N FROM PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 26N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 62W-70W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 33W-48W AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N42W TO 30N47W. WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS TO THE SE ALONG 32N36W TO 23N37W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 35W-37W. WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
E ATLC N OF 23N AND E OF 30W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
HUFFMAN




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