[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 6N30W 9N50W 6N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF E OF 95W EXTENDING FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH N/CENTRAL MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF W OF 95W.
SWLY UPPER FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES
CLIPPING THE FAR NW GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF
ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLC COASTAL STATES WITH A COLD FRONT
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST POISED TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE
FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF
A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 28N95W
THEN S TO 26N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NE GULF
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 26N AND E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND
OVER HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE W
ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM AN
UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 19N65W. W OF
65W...THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
ONLY SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS NOTED ALONG THE ERN NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA COASTLINE W OF 82W. A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS S
OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N80W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 19N
AND W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INLAND
OVER WRN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 64W-67W WITH SCATTERED SHALLOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO UPPER
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W N TO BEYOND 32N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 27N AND W OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N63W
TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 62W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N54W TO
17N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 53W-57W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 25W-40W
WITH A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N38W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 31W-37W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 9N27W PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN


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