[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 6N27W 8N43W 5N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WHICH IS ANCHORED IN THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN
OVER THE GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 94W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE
CONUS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. W OF 94W...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF LATE WED. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE N GULF
COAST STATES PROVIDING SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
N/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N78W IS PROVIDING SE FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 81W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 14N81W
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SW ATLC. THE ITCZ IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION SKIRTS S OF PANAMA ALONG 7N GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
81W-84W. AT THE SURFACE...THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NORTHERLY
FLOW WHILE THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 11N66W 14N71W TO THE SRN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N72W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N67W EXTENDING TO 30N73W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS INTO A 1012 MB LOW OVER N/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
23N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SW ATLC WATERS FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 68W-74W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N37W SW ALONG 20N49W CONTINUING S INTO
THE TROPICS TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N51W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N49W TO
20N53W WITH A CUT OFF 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N37W.
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 25W-37W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 28W. THIS
UPPER FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
ITCZ. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ATLC E OF 32W WITH
SCATTERED MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NE ATLC.

$$
HUFFMAN


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