[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101717
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N12W 7N30W 10N50W 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W...
AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG A LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 28N85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF PALOMA IS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77.5W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
THEY ARE NOT SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ONE AREA OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS IS
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN END OF ANDROS ISLAND. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE PART
EAST OF 65W IS EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 36N32W 4N57W
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS HAPPENING ALONG THE ITCZ AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A LINE OF SURFACE
CONFLUENT WIND FLOW WITH CLOUDS WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 11N80W 14N78W 17N77W 19N76W. SURFACE WIND FLOW IN AN
AREA OF A FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS LEADING TO LINES OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N64W 15N68W 19N71W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO
31N71W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N71W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. THE REMNANT
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF PALOMA IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77.5W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ONE AREA OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS
IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN END OF ANDROS ISLAND.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 36N32W TO A SECOND AND SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 32N33W TO 26N46W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
15N52W INTO SURINAME NEAR 4N57W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 32N38W. THIS FEATURE WAS BEING CONSIDERED A WEAK SYSTEM
ACCORDING TO THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SINCE 08/2345 UTC.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N20W
27N34W 25N42W 18N49W 10N53W UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM
OR WEAK JET STREAM. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
18N53W...WITH A TROUGH FROM IT TO 12N60W PASSING JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF BARBADOS. A SECOND 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
19N57W. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N55W.
A SECOND TROUGH CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N56W AND 16N60W.

$$
MT






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