[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS CENTERED NEAR 22.0N 78.0W OR ABOUT 35
NORTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MOVING N AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. PALOMA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF CUBA BUT WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PALOMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RE-INTENSIFY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
23N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 26N72W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 6N48W 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 8W-15W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE GULF OFF W CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING NW ALONG 23N92W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE REGION WITH WEST UPPER
LEVEL WINDS DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 94W TO OVER TEXAS. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS TRANQUIL TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COVERING THE GULF N OF
26N ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER W TENNESSEE. THE NEXT FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS NEAR MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA IS OVER CUBA WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 18N BETWEEN 75-83W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 14N70W AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO THE BORDER
OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-82W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N72W EXTENDING
ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N78W TO OVER W CUBA NEAR
23N81W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL N OF THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NE TO
BEYOND 32N60W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PALOMA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 33N38W ALONG 25N49W INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 20N53W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 33N38W ALONG 27N40W TO A 1011 MB
LOW IN THE TROPICS NEAR 19N53W TO 15N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 1012 MB LOW. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
ENTIRE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 13N30W PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N56W TO 16N47W AS WELL AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200/225 NM OF LINE
FROM 16N49W 26N41W TO 30N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH
WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 17N E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER W AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE




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