[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
PALOMA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 9/2100 UTC. AT
THIS TIME...IT IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 78.0W OR ABOUT 13 NM...25
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA DRIFTING NORTH...AND A
SLOW GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PALOMA OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD BE
NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TOMORROW. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RAISED TO 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AND PALOMA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STAYING OVER LAND FOR
ALMOST A DAY...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF LOW/MID CLOUDS SPINNING OVER THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EAST AND
CENTRAL CUBA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 5N40W 6N50W 6N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-26W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA OVER SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE GUYANAS BUT PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA THEN CROSSES JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CONTINUES NW TO THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS A WARM FRONT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. 10-15 KT NE
SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE
FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED. THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. ALOFT...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF DIGGING SOUTH INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST AND THE WESTERN GULF. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH
CORE WINDS OF 70-90 KT IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE GULF ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC REGION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
CUBA AFTER IT SEVERELY HIT THE COASTAL TOWN OF SANTA CRUZ DEL
SUR ON THE EVE OF THE SEVENTY SIX ANNIVERSARY OF A SIMILAR EVENT
THAT CAUSED THE DEATH OF 3000 PEOPLE MAINLY DUE TO THE STORM
SURGE. REPORTS FROM WITHIN THE ISLAND OF CUBA INDICATED THAT THE
STORM SURGE ENTERED ONE MILE OR ABOUT 1.5 KILOMETERS. IT WAS
ALSO REPORTED THAT PALOMA DESTROYED AROUND 400 FISHERMAN
HOUSES IN SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PALOMA AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA STARTING TONIGHT AS PALOMA SLOWLY MOVES NWD.   MODERATE
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 14N72W AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N72W THEN CONTINUES
SW TO NEAR 28N76W. AT THIS POINT...IT BECOMES STATIONARY
CROSSING THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY S OF 27N AND W OF 70W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND THE RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS ACTIVITY. A
1010 MB SFC LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 19N52W.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND
UPPER- LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW TO 15N58W WHERE A SWIRL OF LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS IS ALSO SEEN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM NW OF LINE FROM 13N53W TO 20N42W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH CONNECTS THIS SFC LOW WITH A SECOND ONE LOCATED N OF AREA
NEAR 33N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN
COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO TO 31N57W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND DIPS INTO THE TROPICS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH ARE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SITUATED
NEAR 19N52W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER
HIGH IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 11N28W AND EXTENDS RIDGING NE ACROSS THE MADEIRA
AND CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR





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