[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA AT 09/1200 UTC IS NEAR
21.3N 77.8W...NEAR CAMAGUEY CUBA. PALOMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST OR
50 DEGREES 4 KT. THE CENTER OF PALOMA SHOULD BE NEAR THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 MILES PER HOUR/
110 KILOMETERS PER HOUR. PALOMA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
STORM. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...EVEN AFTER THE
CENTER OF PALOMA MOVES OFFSHORE DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
PALOMA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE DURING THE REST OF TODAY...
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST
6 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF THE LINE 26N80W 24N83W 21N84W INCLUDING
COVERING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CUBA WEST
OF 80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 17N76W 15N76W 14N77W.

...THE ITCZ...
9N12W 8N30W 7N50W 8N62W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN
35W AND 38W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W
TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 23N99W. A THIN LINE OF
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS HAS BEEN MARKING
THIS FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE BECOMING MORE AND
MORE INDISTINCT WITH TIME. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 15N70W ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEYOND
24N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IS ON TOP
OF CUBA NOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS BEING DRAWN TO THE NORTH BY
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS REMAIN SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF COLOMBIA...CLOSE TO THE ITCZ
AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 70W...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 15N70W TO 24N69W BEYOND BERMUDA.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 34N36W TO 29N40W TO 23N48W TO 8N58W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO 25N40W TO A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N52W TO 13N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
47W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N24W TO 25N36W
17N52W 13N58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF THE 34N36W 10N55W TROUGH. ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS TO WEST
OF THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER AND TROUGH...ALONG 26N56W BEYOND
33N52W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 18N34W TO 29N24W
BEYOND 32N20W.

$$
MT




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