[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090008 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TIME AT LANDFALL...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
PALOMA THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN
NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999 MADE LANDFALL AT AROUND 620 PM
EST...2320 UTC NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA AS A STRONG
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125
MPH...200 KM/HR. AT 09/0000 UTC...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N
77.9W OR JUST EAST OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA MOVING NE AT 9 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AS PALOMA MOVES ACROSS CUBA.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY MORNING...AND BE
NEARING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 7N40W 9N50W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM N AXIS BETWEEN 30W-34W...AND 140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
40W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF TO
NEAR 24N90W. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
EXTENDS MAINLY WWD TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
SEEN OVER NE MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER SE
TEXAS WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF
REGION. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE BLOWING AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS FROM
HURRICANE PALOMA REACHES THE FAR SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN OVER THE SE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND HURRICANE PALOMA WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING N TO NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TUE. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NLY WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON HURRICANE PALOMA WHICH MADE
LANDFALL EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR IN THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SEVENTY
SIX YEARS AGO...A POWERFUL AND DEADLY HURRICANE HIT THE SAME
AREA. THIS WAS THE INFAMOUS 1932 CUBA HURRICANE. IT MADE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR LATER IN THE
MORNING OF NOVEMBER 9 AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY 4 ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE KILLING UP TO 3000 PEOPLE MAINLY DUE TO THE
STORM SURGE. THIS MADE IT ONE OF THE DEADLIEST HURRICANE OF THE
20TH CENTURY. CUBAN RADAR PRESENTLY INDICATES THAT EYE-WALL OF
HURRICANE PALOMA IS OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF CAMAGUEY WITH HEAVY
RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THIS PROVINCE. THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT.
PALOMA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WINDS AND THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE FACT THAT
THREE MAJOR HURRICANES HIT CUBA THIS SEASON...GUSTAV...IKE AND
PALOMA...WILL PROBABLY BE A NEW RECORD. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR 15N72W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC DIGGING INTO THE TROPICS IS HELPING TO INDUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS SEEN OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND BERMUDA. HURRICANE
PALOMA CONTINUES TO TRACK NE ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
HIGH. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
W ATLC NEAR 29N69W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N34W ALONG 23N41W TO A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 18N52W...THEN
CONTINUES TO NEAR 13N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE TROUGH MAINLY BETWEEN 40W AND 47W AND AROUND THE SURFACE
LOW. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE
EXTENDS SW FROM A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
34N39W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 10N52W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC
LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N28W AND EXTENDS
RIDGING N TO BEYOND 32N25W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-40W.

$$
GR







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