[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081816 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...CORRECTED FOR HURRICANE PALOMA PRESSURE...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE PALOMA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 78.8W AT 08/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 55 NM SW OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR AND ABOUT 90 NM SW OF
CAMAGUEY CUBA MOVING E-NE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
75W-81W. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP UNTIL
LANDFALL IN CUBA LATE TONIGHT AND EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
LATE SUNDAY WITH IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF
RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...AND LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N27W 10N50W 8N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 21W-33W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS EXTENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA SW TO 25N90W THEN TO 21N95W AND INLAND OVER
E/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF LIMITING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF
25N. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER SE TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS FROM HURRICANE PALOMA IS ACROSS THE FAR
SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N AND E OF 83W IN THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS HURRICANE PALOMA AS IT
NEARS CUBA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W DOMINATING THE
ENTIRE BASIN AND ENCOMPASSING PALOMA ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 67W-75W REMAINS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-22N ALONG 69W. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 63W-67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N68W. HURRICANE
PALOMA CONTINUES TO TRACK E-NE NEARING THE SRN COAST OF CUBA ON
THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER HIGH WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE W ATLC S OF 27N AND W OF 74W. A
WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THIS
AREA NEAR 29N74W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N61W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 28N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION CENTERED NEAR 35N39W AND EXTENDS
TROUGHING SWD TO 10N BETWEEN 35W-57W. A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N36W
TO 30N36W SW TO NEAR 23N45W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
20N47W SW INTO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N52W
CONTINUING S TO NEAR 14N53W. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 45W-52W. A BROAD
UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 10N28W AND
EXTENDS RIDGING N TO BEYOND 32N25W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-40W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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