[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE PALOMA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 81.3W AT 07/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 50 NM S OF GRAND CAYMAN MOVING NNE AT 5 KT. THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO
80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
THE TIP OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W TO 21N82W. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WITH PALOMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY
THREE INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 4N34W 9N50W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 24W-36W AND FROM 1N-13N BETWEEN 36W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT PLAIN
STATES EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA SW ALONG 27N96W THEN S TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO N OF
TAMPICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF MOST OF THE GULF LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM W OF THE
FRONT S OF 27N. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE PALOMA IS
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S FLORIDA GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 25N E OF 83W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED/SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS HURRICANE
PALOMA AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N72W DOMINATING THE ENTIRE AREA AND ENCOMPASSING PALOMA
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED THERE. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 67W-77W REMAINS DOMINATED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY ACTIVITY. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE IS
ONLY ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 66W TO ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN
FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
FROM 75W-79W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN RATHER
TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 62W-72W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N64W TO
27N65W DISSIPATING NEAR 25N67W. THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 63W
ACROSS FLORIDA IS DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF
26N W OF 55W PROVIDING UPPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER CUBA AND INTO HE
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 72W-83W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 37W-53W WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N40W AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N33W S TO 20N38W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
REMAINS IN THE TROPICS FROM 20N44W S TO NEAR 10N50W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N48W TO 15N52W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM NEAR 10N35W N TO
BEYOND 32N22W AND E TO THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR 18N51W 21N40W TO BEYOND 32N32W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 50W-60W AND OVER THE E
ATLC N OF 23N E OF 30W...BOTH ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE


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