[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA AT 07/1200 UTC IS NEAR 18.1N
81.6W OR ABOUT 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
215 NM WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. HURRICANE PALOMA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO
85 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 15 NM FROM THE CENTER OF PALOMA...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER OF
PALOMA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY. PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ALSO...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N83W TO 22N78W...
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E CUBA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 6N22W 6N39W 5N48W 6N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
7N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 9N
BETWEEN 30W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...AS A
VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE CONUS
ADVANCES EASTWARD. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM IS
PROGRESSING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH
IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT OVER
THE NW GULF REGION. ALSO...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W TO
THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR
27N97W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER SOUTH FROM 27N97W TO
NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ACROSS THE NW
GULF REGION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION IS GENERALLY
PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION AREAWIDE...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E GULF. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER N FLORIDA
NEAR 30N84W. OVER THE NEXT DAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PROGRESSING TO THE E ACROSS THE N GULF. ALSO...ACROSS
THE FAR SE GULF...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
PALOMA...PRESENTLY LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...IS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE PALOMA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W...WITH THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. TO THE W OF THE HIGH...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
CARIBBEAN...WHERE HURRICANE PALOMA IS ALSO PRESENT. FARTHER TO
THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATLC. THESE
FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN
61W-66W...WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. ALSO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N67W TO 29N65W TO 32N65W AND
EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE PALOMA...PRESENTLY LOCATED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN...IS CIRCULATING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SW ATLC
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-66W...AFFECTING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS
PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 8N57W TO 16N45W TO 28N46W
TO 32N40W AND EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
30N41W...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N42W TO
32N45W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE TROUGH FRONT EXTENDS FROM
16N49W TO 18N46W TO 20N43W. TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N43W TO 27N35W TO 32N33W
TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N19W TO 25N27W TO
16N33W...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE E ATLC. OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N17W TO 14N20W TO 8N30W.

$$
COHEN



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