[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM PALOMA AT 07/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA AT
07/0600 UTC IS NEAR 17.5N 81.8W OR ABOUT 110 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY
JAMAICA. HURRICANE PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 7 KT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
15 NM FROM THE CENTER OF PALOMA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3
INTENSITY BY SATURDAY. PALOMA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 77W-84W...AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF E CUBA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W 4N22W 5N34W 8N48W 6N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 13W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN 29W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...AS A
VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE CONUS
ADVANCES EASTWARD. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM IS
PROGRESSING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH
IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT OVER
THE NW GULF REGION. ALSO...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W TO
THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ACROSS THE NW GULF REGION...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-91W. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION IS GENERALLY
PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION AREAWIDE...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E GULF. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER N FLORIDA
NEAR 30N83W. OVER THE NEXT DAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PROGRESSING TO THE E OVER THE N GULF. ALSO...ACROSS THE
FAR SE GULF...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
PALOMA IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE PALOMA IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. TO THE W OF
THE HIGH...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE
PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE W CARIBBEAN...WHERE HURRICANE
PALOMA IS ALSO PRESENT. FARTHER TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR E
OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATLC. THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 60W-66W...WHICH ARE
AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. ALSO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N67W TO 29N66W TO 32N66W AND
EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS CIRCULATING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SW
ATLC AROUND THE UPPER HIGH SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 60W-66W...AFFECTING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N46W TO
28N46W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N42W AND EXTENDS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE TROUGH FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 15N50W TO 20N43W. TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N43W TO 25N36W TO 32N33W TO N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N42W...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO 32N43W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
SURFACE LOW. FARTHER TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N21W TO 23N28W TO 16N31W...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE E ATLC. OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
15N16W TO 8N31W TO 2N43W.

$$
COHEN



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