[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM PALOMA AT 06/0900 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA
AT 06/1200 UTC IS NEAR 15.3N 82.2W OR ABOUT 60 NM E OF CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. TROPICAL STORM
PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE N ON FRIDAY.
ALSO...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER E HONDURAS...NE NICARAGUA...
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 77W-86W...AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...W CUBA...E HONDURAS...AND NE NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 6N22W 8N34W 6N44W 6N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 6N BETWEEN 9W-21W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-11N BETWEEN 29W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...AS A
VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE CONUS ADVANCES
EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS. SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER SW GEORGIA NEAR 32N84W. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
19N71W...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. TO THE W OF THE HIGH...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF
THE W CARIBBEAN...WHERE TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IS ALSO PRESENT.
FARTHER TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATLC.
THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-22N
BETWEEN 61W-65W...WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. ALSO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO
29N73W TO 32N71W AND EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TO THE E
OF THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N70W TO
28N68W TO 32N68W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS CIRCULATING
ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SW ATLC AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N71W. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...SURFACE
TROUGH...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 61W-65W...AFFECTING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 6N55W TO 17N48W TO 27N46W
TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N41W AND EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED AT 31N40W...WITH A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO 33N38W TO 30N36W TO 28N36W...RESULTING
IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 33W-44W. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO 18N49W TO 22N46W...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 40W-49W. FARTHER TO THE
E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
36N19W TO 23N30W TO 15N32W...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE E ATLC. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT
WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N16W TO 15N25W TO 8N35W...WITH
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

$$
COHEN

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