[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 81.9W OR
ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS
ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AT 06/0000 UTC MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
T.D. IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN...A DEEP TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE NE.
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 77W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 7N22W 6N35W 8N55W 6N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
12W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
23W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
33W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 996 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS PUSHING OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N AND E OF 85W. A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER RIDGING
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MEXICO. 10-15 KT
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MEXICO. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLOUD CLEARING OVER FLORIDA AS THE LOW OFF NORTH
CAROLINA MOVES N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION
TO MOVE N TO CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM T.D. SEVENTEEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
N TEXAS COAST AND PRODUCE LIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. SEVENTEEN IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE AREA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
FRESH TRADEWINDS WITH SPARSE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 70W-74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 61W-63W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...INTENSIFICATION AND
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM T.D. SEVENTEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE 996 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA TO E CUBA ALONG 32N70W 28N70W 20N74W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
64W-67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
61W-64W. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N41W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 26N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE LOW FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 39W-45W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 22N46W 12N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 44W-49W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. A TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-55W. A
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA





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