[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W WITH SATELLITE
IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE N OR NW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
78W-84W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS OF NICARAGUA AND NE
HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 73W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N10W 6N22W 7N49W 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE ITCZ FROM 13W-19W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ
11W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH
OVER TENNESSEE TO OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE UPPER LEVELS ALSO CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE THE GULF. HOWEVER...DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 26N-29N E OF
85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N75W
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS DOMINATED BY
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY
ACTIVITY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM GUADELOUPE ISLANDS TO 22N65W IN THE
W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM THAT REMAINS IN THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N70W ALONG 27N71W TO THE S
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N74W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N67W
TO 28N66W. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY STABLE AIR
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LIMITING ANY ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO 30N60W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
N OF 23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 38W-52W. A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1018 MB
LOW IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 30N41W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 26N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
REMAINS IN THE TROPICS 20N37W SW ALONG 8N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 3N51W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N46W TO 13N49W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITHIN 12O/150 NM OF LINE FROM 15N40W TO 19N48W. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 13N/14W FROM AFRICA TO
THE SHEAR AXIS COVERING THE AREA S OF 30N AND AMPLIFYING A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR 27N28W NW TO BEYOND 32N37W
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 24N34W TO BEYOND 32N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 45W-65W AND OVER THE E ATLC N
OF 20N E OF 30W...BOTH ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE


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