[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N82W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO E CUBA NEAR
20N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 81W-84W...AND FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 75W-81W. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 6N20W 5N32W 7N38W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W...
AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N AND E OF 87W. A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 35N87W IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER RIDGING
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MEXICO. 10-15 KT
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
MEXICO. EXPECT GRADUAL CLOUD CLEARING OVER FLORIDA AS THE LOW
OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST MOVES N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN
THE AREA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FRESH TRADEWINDS WITH SPARSE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 74W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR
17N78W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-84W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION
WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR 30N75W
MOVING N. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W 29N67W.
A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N41W
27N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 22N46W 12N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 50W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W-50W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA E
OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA





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