[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N80W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING N TO THE W TIP OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 74W-83W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N14W 5N27W 5N41W 3N53W. BROAD AREA
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION FROM S OF THE
EQUATOR TO 15N BETWEEN 26W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N17W TO
6N26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH OVER KENTUCKY/
TENNESSEE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR COVER THE UPPER LEVELS WITH ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
DOTTING THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
VERACRUZ TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITHIN
75 NM OF 25N BETWEEN 84W-90W. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOES COVER ALL OF FLORIDA AND S
ALABAMA INTO THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N61W
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 28N77W...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO 29N75W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 22N76W...
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E TO 29N71W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 27N64W...AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE 1012
MB LOW T0 A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 33N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 75W. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W 27N79W TO
30N79W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND COVERING THE W
TROPICAL ATLC ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-50W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 33N41W SW TO 28N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
SEPARATES THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER RIDGE
IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N41W SSW ALONG 9N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N51W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 47W/48W BETWEEN
12N-21N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 42W-47W. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 12N FROM AFRICA TO THE
SHEAR AXIS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE




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