[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
IN THE W CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB
SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W TO 17N79W TO SE CUBA
NEAR 20N76W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 77W-83W...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 79W. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 6N22W 4N35W 3N46W 5N54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 12W-15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-13N
BETWEEN 21W-30W...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 14N BETWEEN
31W-38W...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF...WHERE
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE PRESENT. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE GULF...
FURTHER ENHANCING THE SUBSIDENCE. CORRESPONDINGLY...STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N69W...WITH
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE W OF THE
HIGH...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND A SURFACE LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN...ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
FARTHER TO THE E...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SW OF THE UPPER HIGH
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
71W-75W...INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS OF NE COLOMBIA AND NW
HONDURAS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.
ALSO...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE W ATLC...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND CORRESPONDING DEEP ATMOSPHERIC LIFT E
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE E CONUS...RESULTING IN MULTIPLE
SURFACE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE W ATLC. IN
PARTICULAR...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N76W. TO THE S OF THIS LOW...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
26N76W TO 23N76W TO 21N76W. TO THE NW OF THE LOW...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N76W TO 29N78W TO A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW E
OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N78W...WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TO THE E OF THE
1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W...A
SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N76W TO 26N72W TO
25N67W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N67W TO 25N57W
TO 26N50W TO A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
30N47W. TO THE NE OF THIS 1019 MB SURFACE LOW...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N47W TO 32N45W AND EXTENDS NE OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT NEAR THESE SURFACE LOWS...FRONTS...AND
TROUGHS...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 69W-74W...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 64W-70W. ALSO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
47W-52W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 77W-79W
AFFECTING AREAS E OF THE FLORIDA COAST. FARTHER TO THE E...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
1N54W TO 15N42W TO 32N44W AND EXTENDS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 21N45W TO 17N47W TO 13N47W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN
42W-47W. FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS N OF 28N E OF
16W...THOUGH DEEP DRY AIR IS PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER S...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
13N16W TO 17N24W TO 24N29W...WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
AXIS.

$$
COHEN



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