[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN NOV 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 8N24W 10N42W 8N55W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...AND FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W
AND 38W...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE TROUGHS/TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N85W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
THE MEXICO GULF COAST ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN 20N AND THE MEXICO/
TEXAS BORDER...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO CENTRAL
HONDURAS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
GALE WIND CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO. EXPECT GALE WIND CONDITIONS FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ADVANCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AROUND
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/TROUGH FROM GEORGIA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE FROM 22N81W TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W. THIS
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BRUSHING UP AGAINST UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 12N80W TO WESTERN
JAMAICA TO CUBA NEAR 20N77W. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
THE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH ARE HELPING TO GENERATE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 76W AND
83W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. THE SOUTHERN END
OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT REACHES CUBA NEAR 21N78W.
NEARLY ONE INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN HAVANA CUBA FOR THE
24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING 02/0000 UTC. NO SIMILAR REPORTS
OF RAIN IN HAVANA HAVE BEEN SEEN YET. BROAD AND NOT PRONOUNCED
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
MOSTLY EAST OF 66W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE TROUGH...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS ALONG 58W FROM 14N
TO 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT OR LESS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. THIS SAME FEATURE HAD MUCH
MORE OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO.
A SECOND TROUGH...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS ALONG 46W
FROM 9N TO 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 14N
BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. A THIRD TROUGH...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL WAVE...
IS ALONG 28W/29W FROM 6N TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N52W TO 26N60W
TO 24N70W TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N47W 29N46W 27N59W
26N71W TO 20N73W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 25N36W TO 19N43W TO 7N54W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 30N34W 7N54W TROUGH.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 24N16W.

$$
MT




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