[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 88.9W OR ABOUT
75 MILES NW OF BELIZE CITY AT 31/2100 UTC MOVING WNW 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
STORM CENTER IS INLAND HOWEVER BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 85W-93W...AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
81W-83W.  ARTHUR MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER LAND BUT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT MAY RETAIN TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
MIMIC-TPW CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL ROTATION
IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 7N. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 44W-50W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
39W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-7N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W S OF 21N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND
AN ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
MASKING ANY SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 1N33W 2N45W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 15W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
22W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 37W-39W...AND FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND ELY TO SELY 10-15 KT WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER SW FLORIDA
FROM 25N-27N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING COVERS THE SRN GULF DUE TO
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF T.S. ARTHUR. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 90W-93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. NWLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES N OF 22N WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
MOISTURE IS S OF 22N DUE TO ARTHUR. ARTHUR WILL MOVE INTO THE SW
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN...
ARTHUR IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTEND FROM
PUERTO RICO TO W CUBA N OF 18N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING
IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF
13N.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF 80W DUE TO ARTHUR OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N42W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC. AN EMBEDDED WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N60W 26N65W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 59W-61W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. A TROUGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N63W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 25W-55W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N40W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 11N16W.

$$
FORMOSA





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