[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 311710
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA
AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE
ARTHUR IS ALREADY INLAND..WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES
BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07. ARTHUR IS ALREADY
SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEREFORE A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST. NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ARTHUR NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/1700Z 18.1N  88.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  91.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N  93.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  94.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N  95.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 18.5N  96.5W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

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