[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
MIMIC-TPW CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL ROTATION
IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 8N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N16W TO 4N20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LIEN FROM 9N17W TO 7N22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-16W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT.
MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF 9N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 51W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MASKING ANY SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 4N12W 6N16W 2N28W 5N40W 3N52W.
SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 23W-27W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING THE GULF N OF 24N. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 84W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE FAR W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED
OVER THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ALMA IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS CREATING A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE S GULF FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE S OF A LINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR
19N94W ALONG 24N88W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER CUBA. THE N GULF
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF/SE US AND
COMBINED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE S GULF AND CARIBBEAN
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALMA IS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
17N88W. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS
MORNING. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND SE MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING
THE ENTIRE AREA AND MAINTAINING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MAINLY W
OF 82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 82W TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND N OF 18N FROM 78W-82W TO OVER CUBA AND
INCLUDES THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N FROM 69W-78W. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.

ATLANTIC...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM 59W-77W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION
NEAR 32N59W TO 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF 65W. A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH OVER THE SE US
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE ATLC FROM THE
COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W ALONG 26N25W TO 24N35W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N19W 27N27W TO 27N32W. THE AREA
IS UNDER RATHER DRY CONDITIONS SO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N37W
EXTENDING N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DOMINATING THE TROPICS W
OF 30W. A SECOND UPPER HIGH IS DEVELOPING NEAR 7N18W EXPANDING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 17W.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W GIVING THE REGION E OF 55W FAIR
WEATHER.

$$
WALLACE



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