[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.
MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE
EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 17N. ANY CONVECTION
IS S OF 8N AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW AND SLIGHT CURVATURE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE EXHIBITS LOW AMPLITUDE AND REMAINS
MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W/77W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AXIS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
AS IT IS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 22N MOVING NW AT 5-10 KT. THIS
WAVE PARALLELS THE E BELIZE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER W HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND
YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N20W 3N25W 4N33W 4N38W 3N49W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 1N11W TO 6N22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR LOS MOCHIS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS E TEXAS
TO LOUISIANA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NE
GULF SW TO 25N91W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE
COVERS THE S GULF S OF 24N. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES N OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINS FROM
THE S GULF TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE YUCATAN THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER W CUBA. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA KICKING OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING
FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC N
OF THE AREA COVERS THE N GULF/SE US AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS
ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC.
THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W
AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NW
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 81W-88W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 15N FROM PUERTO RICO WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 60W INTO THE
E COAST OF FLORIDA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA E OF 68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ONSHORE OVER S FLORIDA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 26N66W TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND IS AIDING
IN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM
SE OF THE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N43W NE TO BEYOND 33N41W. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N16W ALONG 27N26W TO
26N32W. AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC
BETWEEN THE
COAST OF W AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC AND INTO THE E US/N
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE AREA E OF BERMUDA WHERE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N39W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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