[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOW DIFFICULT TO TRACK. VERY
LITTLE LOW CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24W-29W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 47W-50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 67W-71W.

..THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 4N40W 4N52W. OTHER
THAN THE ATLANTIC CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
8W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
15W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING
10-15 KT SELY RETURN SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE ERN EXTENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING NLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF 90W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF HAITI NEAR 21N73W. A COLD COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-83W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-70W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF
16N AND W OF 78W. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 23N67W 21N73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE FRONT. A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE
AZORES NEAR 37N31W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO 20N55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS W OF
60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N37W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
S FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N45W. A RIDGE
IS E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA






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