[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260622
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W
SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE
HAS DISSIPATED. IT HAS BEEN REPLACED ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS
BY A SURFACE TROUGH 17N93W 20N94W 23N94W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT 26/0045 UTC COVERED THE AREA FROM WESTERN
HONDURAS TO COASTAL MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. MUCH OF THAT PRECIPITATION
HAS WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING.

..THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N25W TO 3N32W 4N41W...CURVING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N ALONG 50W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BETWEEN AFRICA AND 3N9W 5N18W 10N14W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN
20W AND 27W...AND WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N21W
5N26W 6N31W 7N39W 9N41W 9N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM BERMUDA TO THE CUBA COAST
NEAR 22N79W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N83W.
COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR LATE MAY MOVES FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWESTWARD...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N72W TO 23N80W ALONG THE CUBA COAST.
MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEST OF 84W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA COLD FRONT THAT
ACCOMPANIES THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES FROM A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N59W TO 23N70W TO CUBA NEAR 21N80W.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 22.5N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THROUGH 32N56W 27N60W 22N65W 21N73W 20N78W 21N84W...FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS...
TO SOUTH OF CUBA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
37N74W TO NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 25N92W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PASSING
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS HAS BEEN
DROPPED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N93W 20N94W 23N94W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT 26/0045 UTC COVERED THE AREA FROM
WESTERN HONDURAS TO COASTAL MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. MUCH OF THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

IT LOOKED LIKE A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR 20N91W AT 25/1500 UTC. MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDED THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NEAR OLD TROPICAL WAVE/REMNANT CENTRAL
AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
FLATTENED OUT. THE REMNANT WIND FLOW BECAME WESTERLY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE 16N74W CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO WEAKENED
COMPARATIVELY...AND ONLY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS.
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH AMERICA...
COVERING THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 68W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 68W FROM 10N TO 20N.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
EXTENDS FROM A 30N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N41W
TO 14N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 33N
BETWEEN 33W AND 39W...AND FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM SPAIN AND PORTUGAL
TO MOROCCO...ALGERIA...MAURITANIA...AND MALI. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 25N48W TO 19N55W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N59W 21N80W
COLD FRONT.

$$
MT




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