[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE WAS COMPARATIVELY MORE IMPRESSIVE
AND THERE WAS MORE OF IT 24 HOURS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 11N
BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W
SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W
MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W
FROM 13N TO 20N...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO
HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING/
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE FOLLOWED. THE MOST
RECENT PRECIPITATION IS SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 18N TO 19N
BETWEEN 92W AND 93W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 91W
AND 92W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS REMAIN ELSEWHERE FROM
EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 87W AND 94W.
THE SOUTHERN END OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM MEXICO TO GUATEMALA
ALSO IS IN THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION.

..THE ITCZ...
6N9W 4N19W 2N29W 4N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN
1W AND 3W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W...AND SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 38W
AND 50W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
NORTH AND IT COVERS PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
16N74W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN
70W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN NORTHERN HAITI. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 14N. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
THE 16N74W CYCLONIC CENTER. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF
12N60W 15N70W 16N80W 17N88W IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW...AND
IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM ONE TROUGH 24 HOURS AGO
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD
FROM GEORGIA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OF THE
BAHAMAS TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 29N71W TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N...
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE ABOUT 10 HOURS
AGO. FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS REPORTED AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE NORTH OF
24N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS FROM A 31N35W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N41W TO 14N43W 4N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA TO
NORTHERN AFRICA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM SPAIN/
PORTUGAL TO MOROCCO/ALGERIA/MALI/MAURITANIA. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N34W TO
29N41W TO 23N60W.

$$
MT




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