[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES SHOW A FAINT APEX OR WEAK INVERTED V PATTERN
IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE LINEAR IN STRUCTURE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W S OF 14N
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE MAY BE ADJUSTED W
TO NEAR 65W ON THE 06Z MAP BASED ON A MOISTURE BULGE EVIDENT ON
THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. THAT POSITION WOULD ALSO PLACE THE WAVE
AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
...HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WAVE.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 4N30W 5N40W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N E OF 14W
AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 50W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-18W AND WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT LIES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TRANSPORTING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SE OF A LINE FROM JUST S
OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. THIS UPPER FLOW IS
PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 21N93W.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS HAVE JUST DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE E GULF.
A WEAKENING PATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS LOCATED
S OF KEY WEST TO THE N SHORE OF CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER
THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE...BOTH SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
THE STRONG UPPER WINDS. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TO THE WEAK FRONT AND A 1013 MB HIGH OVER THE W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE SCALE MID TO UPPER RIDGING LIES OVER THE REGION...THOUGH
IT IS INTERRUPTED SLIGHTLY BY A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 15N66W. THE
UPPER LOW AND MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 14N IS UNDER A VERY
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT PROVIDING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. ONE
MINOR EXCEPTION IS OVER HAITI...AS SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES DEPICT
FAIRLY DENSE LOW-LEVEL DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. S OF 14N...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
BUT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LIKELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW WATERS S OF 13N W OF 77W. ELY TRADES
ARE MAINLY MODERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS. THESE
WINDS VEER SE OVER THE NW WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N26W DOMINATES THE
THE SFC PATTERN THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SUBTROPICS...EXCEPT FOR THE
NW WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NE CONUS. N TO NE WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCED
NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 20N-26N DUE TO INVERTED TROUGHING
OVER THE CONTINENT. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE
RIDGE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
POSITIONED NEAR 22N69W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 33W/34W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 30W-34W.
RIDGING LIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH ONE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER W AFRICA NEAR 11N14W AND ANOTHER OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS MAY BE ENHANCING
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.  VISIBILITY IS LIKELY REDUCED IN THE
SMOKE PLUMES DIRECTLY DOWNWIND FROM BRUSH FIRES NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA...NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA AND ABACO BAHAMAS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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