[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180501
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE REMAINS DISTORTED AS IT CONTINUES OVER SOUTH AMERICA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 10N FROM 55W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W S OF 10N MOVING W
5-10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DOES INDICATED THE
PRESENCE OF A WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-80W.

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 4N17W 5N27W 3N41W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
15W-18W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 22W26W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E
10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-32W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
W OF 26W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF ENTERING THE
REGION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG
25N91W THEN S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR COATZACOALCOS. THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE
NW ATLC WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS W TEXAS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER W MEXICO AND A RE-ENFORCING
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF REMAIN DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ALSO COVERS THE W ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER S AND E MEXICO
MOVING INTO THE SW GULF BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITHIN 125 NM
ALONG THE COAST FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO JUST S OF THE
TEXAS BORDER. SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE GULF AS
A RESULT OF FIRES THAT WHERE OVER THE YUCATAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST W OF JAMAICA AND COVERS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW AND THUS HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A
LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS SE
TO THE ABC ISLANDS THEN NE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES JUST S OF
GUADELOUPE. THE AREA N OF THIS IS LINE HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN WITH THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE NE US COVERING THE NW ATLC N OF
30N W OF 55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
OVER BERMUDA EXTENDING TO THE E COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
VERO BEACH BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE GULF JUST N OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 18N BETWEEN 36W-55W AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N44W ALONG 24N50W TO 21N60W. A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 24N43W TO 33N38W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W BRIDGING THE EASTERN
MOST FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE
AZORES NEAR 35N27W.

$$
WALLACE




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