[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
17W AND 23W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR
8N21W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 3N-8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A FAIR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
NORTH ALONG 49W SUPPORTING THE POSITION OF THE WAVE.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER W VENEZUELA/E COLOMBIA
WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA
SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT IS ENHANCING SOME
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...NO OTHER
AVAILABLE DATA CAN CURRENTLY CONFIRM OR DENY THE PRESENCE OF
THIS FEATURE. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE WAVE WILL BE EXTRAPOLATED
WESTWARD IN HOPES THAT MORNING DATA WILL SHED SOME LIGHT ON ITS
EXISTENCE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N15W 8N21W 4N29W 2N35W 5N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY OFF THE
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA COAST FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 9W-13W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 17W-24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS W CUBA CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND S TEXAS INTO THE W
GULF. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS SUPPORTS COLD FRONT
WHICH ENTERS THE GULF NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF INLAND S OF CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF W OF 92W
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N92W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN
THE W ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
E GULF IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER E OF 90W.  THE FRONT CURRENTLY
IN THE NW GULF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR
27N86W BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY WEAKENING ON
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS WELL
DEFINED ACROSS S HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA WHERE IT IS PRODUCING
BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS PRODUCING MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE PANAMA COAST
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ.  ELSEWHERE FRESH
TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND AS W ATLC RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 59W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
THIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N49W THROUGH 25N53W TO S OF SAINT CROIX. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT IS PRODUCING A 200 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 30N73W IS BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ESE OVER THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 32N37W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PRODUCING SLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT
WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION
AREA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN ELONGATED RIDGE REMAINS BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS ALONG 9N ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN




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