[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE GUIANAS REGION AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS E
OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS BRINGING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W 1N28W EQ33W 1N40W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM THE AXIS N TO
11N BETWEEN 11W-16W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 2N28W TO 6N35W.
ALSO WIDELY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SE CONUS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING THE
ATMOSPHERE MAINLY DRY AND STABLE. AS OF 0300 UTC...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS ANALYZED FROM GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF N OF 25N ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGE. A NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND W CUBA.  ALOFT...A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER BELIZE AND N GUATEMALA ENVELOPS THE ENTIRE
GULF. FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER FEATURE
IS TRANSPORTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH ACROSS E CENTRAL MEXICO
WITH ONLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINING ACROSS THE GULF W OF
94W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC
TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE E ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW
TO THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC CROSSES THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE N COAST OF W AND CENTRAL CUBA WHERE
IT IS DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA AS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11-13N
BETWEEN 75-78W. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER BELIZE AND N
GUATEMALA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 58W/59W AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED IN THE NW
ATLC NEAR 39N62W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS MAYAGUANA
BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF N CENTRAL CUBA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY N OF 24N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N63W WSW
TO 26N75W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LOCATED BEHIND THIS
TROUGH ARE PROVIDING NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. A BROAD ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N38W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 10N IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN



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